National Board of Review Predictions

They aren't national. They're not really a board. And they don't review films. So why are they such a big deal? Well, they're the first out of the gate. The NBR is the first "ten best" list announced every year and a likely sign of what will be competing for Oscar glory come January. And they've been around since 1909. Now, the validity of the group has always caused a bit of controversy among insiders. Check out this story here for more on that. However, I would like to point out that among their top 10 list last year, 7 of those films made my top 10 list. 4 films matched in 2002 & 2001. I guess this invalid group is similar to little old invalid me. Eh. Whatever. Anywho, since this is a big deal to us award whores - and believe me the NBR are award whores since they exist primarily get celebs to come to their party - I've decided to make some predictions.



One of the thing the group is known to do is share the wealth. It is not likely that a film will sweep their list, as many films will get one notice, and rarely two. The NBR skews toward 3 main areas for its list: New York-based (mostly Miramax), large ensembles, and gay. Miramax's biggest contender almost always makes the list (Cold Mountain, Chicago, Gangs of New York, In the Bedroom.) A film with a large cast is a shoe-in (Mystic River, Ocean's Eleven.) Films dealing with gay subject matter or catering toward a gay audience always make the cut. (The Hours, Gods and Monsters, American Beauty, Moulin Rouge!)



My predictions for the National Board of Review.



1. Closer

2. The Aviator

3. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

4. Kinsey

5. The Motorcycle Diaries

6. Sideways

7. Finding Neverland

8. Collateral

9. The Phantom of the Opera

10. Spider-Man 2



Best Actor - Jeff Bridges - The Door In the Floor

Best Actress - Annette Bening - Being Julia

Supporting Actor - Thomas Haden Church - Sideways

Supporting Actress - Natalie Portman - Closer & Garden State

Director - Martin Scorsese - The Aviator

Breakthrough Male - Jamie Foxx - Ray

Breakthrough Female - Rachel McAdams - Mean Girls & The Notebook



Check out the National Board of Review's website here.