FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

My goal is to get 80% or higher correct.

They are announced Tuesday morning at 8:30AM Eastern on my major news channels. Salma Hayek will be this year's celeb co-announcer.


And here goes...

BEST PICTURE:

The above 5.

BABEL - THE DEPARTED - DREAMGIRLS - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE - THE QUEEN

I'm not even sure what could break in at this point. There seems to be 3 or 4 movies that could get in. First and foremost would be Clint Eastwood's Letters From Iwo Jima. But the movie had virtually no support from the guilds and seems to have minimal buzz and isn't doing to swell at the box office. Next up: Pan's Labyrinth and Children of Men. They were award season late bloomers, but sadly top 10 lists won't get you to Best Picture. That would leave United 93, which would be the most beneficial of the Academy's preferential style of voting. (You get enough #1 placements, and you're in.) But how many people refused to watch it? And who knows? If people do in fact let their maids fill out their ballots and that explains the Crash victory last year, then why shouldn't we assume they also give it to their stylists? Go The Devil Wears Prada. I guess I'll play it safe and assume Hollywood just loves Eastwood. NEXT IN LINE FOR BEST PICTURE: LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA

BEST DIRECTING:

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - BABEL
Martin Scorsese - THE DEPARTED
Bill Condon - DREAMGIRLS
Clint Eastwood - LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
Stephen Frears - THE QUEEN
NEXT IN LINE: Valerie Faris & Jonathan Dayton - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE

Well, maybe Paul Greengrass. I think Bill Condon might end up being snubbed. The big question is will Clint cancel himself out with Iwo Jima and Flags of Our Fathers? And will one of the remaining Mexican directors - Alfonso Cuaron and Guillermo Del Toro - sneak in. Cuaron stands the best shot between the two. But that Sunshine team did get a DGA nod, so that gives them the edge.

BEST ACTOR:

Sacha Baron Cohen - Borat
Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Forest Whitaker - The Last King Scotland
NEXT IN LINE: Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness

Okay, do I honestly believe Sacha will score here? Yes and no. Yes, because, again, of the way the Academy votes. He has a huge following and last minute voters may have been swayed toward marking his name at #1 with that dynamite Golden Globe speech. I'd say Gosling might actually be the weak link out of that lineup, and Smith in Pursuit of Happyness reeks of an I Am Sam-esque nomination.

BEST ACTRESS:

Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children
NEXT IN LINE: Maggie Gyllenhaal - Sherrybaby

This is pretty much a done deal.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson - The Departed
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed
NEXT IN LINE: Michael Sheen - The Queen

This is the category to watch. Here's a case where any of the above people could be snubbed. I chose Michael Sheen as the alternate because when in doubt always go with someone from a Best Picture nominee. And consider that someone almost always gets in without a Globe or SAG nod. Sheen fits the bill. Other than that, we could see Ben Affleck, Brad Pitt, Steve Carell, Djimon Honsou or even Leo being put in supporting for The Departed. Let's just hope this category doesn't end up being a dud come Tuesday morning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel
NEXT IN LINE: Emily Blunt - The Devil Wears Prada

This was the wide open category for months, but now seems pretty set. Potential surprises include Toni Collette, Shareeka Epps or Catherine O'Hara.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Babel - Little Miss Sunshine - The Queen - Stranger Than Fiction - Volver
NEXT IN LINE: Pan's Labyrinth

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Children of Men - The Departed - The Devil Wears Prada - Little Children - Notes on a Scandal
NEXT IN LINE: Thank You For Smoking

Surprises will more likely occur in Adapted. I don't see Dreamgirls having any chance here. It feels barely in for Director? Even The Illusionist, Last King of Scotland, The Painted Veil, Borat or A Prairie Home Companion could get in here, too.

ANIMATED FEATURE:
Cars - Happy Feet - Monster House
NEXT IN LINE: Flushed Away

ART DIRECTION:
Curse of the Golden Flower - Dreamgirls - Marie Antoinette - Pan's Labyrinth - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
NEXT IN LINE: Children of Men

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Black Dahlia - Children of Men - The Illusionist - Letters From Iwo Jima - Pan's Labyrinth
NEXT IN LINE: Apocalypto

COSTUME DESIGN:
Curse of the Golden Flower - The Devil Wears Prada - Dreamgirls - Marie Antoinette - The Painted Veil
NEXT IN LINE: The Illusionist

DOCUMENTARY:
Deliver Us From Evil - An Inconvenient Truth - Jesus Camp - Shut Up and Sing - The War Tapes
NEXT IN LINE: The Ground Truth

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Days of Glory - The Lives of Others - Pan's Labyrinth - Volver - Water
NEXT IN LINE: Black Book

FILM EDITING:
Babel - The Departed - Letters From Iwo Jima - The Queen - United 93
NEXT IN LINE: Dreamgirls

MAKEUP:
Apocalypto - Pan's Labyrinth - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
NEXT IN LINE: The Prestige

ORIGINAL SCORE:
Babel - The Da Vinci Code - The Illusionist - The Painted Veil - The Queen
NEXT IN LINE: The Fountain

ORIGINAL SONG:
"Never Gonna Break My Faith" - Bobby
"Ordinary Miracle" - Charlotte's Web
"Listen" - Dreamgirls
"Song of the Heart" - Happy Feet
"A Father's Way" - The Pursuit of Happyness
NEXT IN LINE: "I Need to Wake Up" - An Inconvenient Truth

SOUND MIXING:
Casino Royale - The Departed - Dreamgirls - Flags of Our Fathers - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
NEXT IN LINE: Children of Men

SOUND EDITING:
Cars - Casino Royale - Happy Feet - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Superman Returns
NEXT IN LINE: Flags of Our Fathers

VISUAL EFFECTS:
Night at the Museum - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - Superman Returns
NEXT IN LINE: Poseidon


Tally:
The Departed - 8
Dreamgirls - 8
Babel - 7
The Queen - 6
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 5 (UGH!)
Little Miss Sunshine - 4
Pan's Labyrinth - 4
The Devil Wears Prada - 3
Happy Feet - 3
Letters From Iwo Jima - 3
Little Children - 3
Notes on a Scandal - 3
Volver - 3
Cars - 2
Casino Royale - 2
Children of Men - 2
Curse of the Golden Flower - 2
The Illusionist - 2
Marie Antoinette - 2
The Painted Veil - 2
Superman Returns - 2
Apocalypto - 1
The Black Dahlia - 1
Blood Diamond - 1
Bobby - 1
Borat - 1
Charlotte's Web - 1
The Da Vinci Code - 1
Days of Glory - 1
Deliver Us From Evil - 1
Flags of Our Fathers - 1
Half Nelson - 1
An Inconvenient Truth - 1
Jesus Camp - 1
The Last King of Scotland - 1
The Lives of Others - 1
Monster House - 1
Night at the Museum - 1
The Pursuit of Happyness - 1
Shut Up and Sing - 1
Stranger Than Fiction - 1
Venus - 1
The War Tapes - 1
Water - 1


"That's all."