October Oscar Predix (#2 of 5)

I think box-office may have hurt Flags of Our Fathers. I think Dreamgirls looks like a solid blockbuster that gets tech nods but nothing more. So there. The Departed's box office is hard to ignore, and The Queen is knocking them out in limited release.....So here goes:

Best Picture:
1. The Departed
2. The Good German
3. The Queen
4. Babel
5. Little Miss Sunshine

Best Director:
1. Martin Scorsese - The Departed
2. Stephen Frears - The Queen
3. Steven Soderbergh - The Good German
4. Alejandro Inirritu Gonzalez - Babel
5. Paul Greengrass - United 93

Best Actor:
1. Peter O'Toole - Venus
2. Leonardo Dicaprio - The Departed
3. Forrest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
4. Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
5. George Clooney - The Good German

Best Actress:
1. Helen Mirren - The Queen
2. Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
3. Penelope Cruz - Volver
4. Cate Blanchett - The Good German
5. Kate Winslet - Little Children

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Jack Nicholson - The Departed (currently campaigned as lead, but that should change soon)
2. Brad Pitt - Babel
3. Tobey Maguire - The Good German
4. Michael Sheen - The Queen
5. Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine

Best Supporting Actress:
(Oh kill me now.....Annette Bening is currently being campaigned lead for Running With Scissors. The movie itself is doing poor with critics, so it might be smart to put her in supporting where she can actually get nominated. Jennifer Hudson's fans are putting her here on the strenght of one musical number and no actual proven acting talent. If you're going to compare her to Queen Latifah getting in for Chicago, you have to keep in mind how big Chicago was. I don't see that with Dreamgirls. Bobby is very divisive, but everyone really likes Sharon Stone's performance in it. If The Departed does in fact go over big, there's a chance it could pull in Vera Farmiga given how weak this category is. Maggie Gyllenhaal could get in for World Trade Center or Stranger Than Fiction even, but STF would have to be a Best Picture nominee for her to get in. There's still those Prairie Home Companion gals - Meryl Streep & Lily Tomlin - and even the Friends With Money gals - last year's nominees Catherine Keener & Frances McDormand - might be remembered if this category gets even weaker. Even The Devil Wears Prada's Emily Blunt shouldn't be overlooked at this point. Hell, even Jessica Biel in The Illusionist shouldn't be dismissed. If I were 20th Century Fox, I'd put Meryl in supporting for Prada where she would easily win the actual statue. That would bump her out of lead, and put Marie Antoinette's Kirsten Dunst in. Eh, who knows. I considered actually skipping this category but I might as well go with..

(unranked)
Arriana Barazza - Babel
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Carmen Maura - Volver
Sharon Stone - Bobby
Emma Thompson - Stranger Than Fiction

Original Screenplay:
1. The Queen
2. Babel
3. Little Miss Sunshine
4. Stranger Than Fiction
5. Volver

Adapted Screenplay
1. The Departed
2. The Good German
3. Little Children
4. The Last King of Scotland
5. Children of Men

Art Direction:
1. Marie Antoinette
2. The Good German
3. Flags of Our Fathers
4. Dreamgirls
5. The Nativity Story

Costume Design:
1. Marie Antoinette
2. Dreamgirls
3. Miss Potter
4. The Good German
5. The Devil Wears Prada

Cinematography:
1. The Good German
2. Dreamgirls
3. Flags of Our Fathers
4. Children of Men
5. Apocalypto

Editing:
1. The Departed
2. Babel
3. United 93
4. The Good German
5. Flags of Our Fathers

Makeup:
1. Apocalypto
2. Marie Antoinette
3. Dreamgirls

Original Song:
1. Shut Up and Sing
2. Bobby
3. An Inconvenient Truth
4. Cars
5. Dreamgirls

Score:
1. The Queen
2. The Good German
3. Children of Men
4. Babel
5. The Departed

Sound Mixing:
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2. Dreamgirls
3. The Departed
4. Superman Returns
5. Casino Royale

Sound Editing:
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2. Cars
3. World Trade Center

Visual Effects:
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
2. Superman Returns
3. Night at the Museum